Coming into what promises to be another thrilling race weekend at the 6 Hours of Bahrain points will start to equal prizes in the 2014 FIA World Endurance Championship.
With two rounds remaining this means that there are a maximum of 52 points on offer for the drivers, 25 for each victory and one for pole. Thus, coming out of Bahrain, any driver with a lead of more than 26 points will have secured the title. There are a myriad of possibilities for each category but here are the most important permutations to look out for this weekend.
FIA WORLD ENDURANCE DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Anthony Davidson and Sebastien Buemi have a 42 point lead over the trio of André Lotterer/Benoît Tréluyer/Marcel Fässler (147 - 105). If Davidson / Buemi score at least 11 points in Bahrain their lead will be unassailable, regardless of where the Audi line up finishes. This equates to fifth place. So, if Davidson/Buemi finish fifth or better, the best that Lotterer/Tréluyer/Fässler could manage would be a tie, which based on the tiebreaker rule would still give Davidson/Buemi the title due to their higher number of race victories.
Conversely, Lotterer/Tréluyer/Fässler must finish no lower than second this weekend, regardless of what Davidson/Buemi do, in order to remain in contention at Interlagos. If the Audi drivers win, then the lead Toyota pairing must finish lower than fifth for the title to remain open. Should Lotterer/Tréluyer/Fässler finish second, then Davidson/ Buemi need only finish eighth or better in order to clinch the grand prize.
FIA WORLD ENDURANCE MANUFACTURERS’ CHAMPIONSHIP
There are 88 manufacturer points on offer for the remaining two races. After Shanghai Porsche is out of the running. Toyota has a considerable lead of 29 points over Audi, but it is not insurmountable. There are various scenarios under which Toyota could clinch the championship at Bahrain and also a few scenarios under which Audi could take over the lead.
The points system is such that both team cars are eligible for points, however Porsche’s results could play a spoiler role in proceedings, not all cars are necessarily classified and there is a one point bonus for the car taking the pole. This results in many permutations that are arithmetically possible.
The key summary though is that if Toyota’s lead over Audi increases to 43 points or more, then Toyota becomes champion. Audi can conceivably take the lead in Bahrain, but cannot win the championship there.
FIA ENDURANCE TROPHY FOR LMP2 DRIVERS
Four sets of drivers remain in mathematical contention in what is shaping up to be a tight contest for the top two positions. However, it looks increasingly likely that either current leader Sergey Zlobin or the G-Drive Racing trio of Julien Canal/Olivier Pla/Roman Rusinov will be crowned champions in 2014.
Zlobin has an eight point advantage (128 – 120) over Canal/Pla and Rusinov. In the event of a tie the advantage would be with the G-Drive squad, as they have more class victories.
If Zlobin wins LMP2 at Bahrain and Canal/Pla/Rusinov are unclassified, then Zlobin takes the title.
If Zlobin finishes 2nd and takes the class pole with Canal/Pla/Rusinov unclassified, then Zlobin also wins the championship.
Any other outcome at Bahrain and the LMP2 contest remains open until Interlagos.
Zlobin will maintain the lead after Bahrain if he finishes either first or second, regardless of where Canal/Pla/Rusinov finish.
While Canal/Pla/Rusinov may be able to take the lead at Bahrain, they cannot secure the title this weekend.
Anton Ladygin in the #37 SMP Racing ORECA-Nissan, on 92 points, still has a remote chance at the title but it would take considerable misfortune for Zlobin and the G-Drive crew for him to have even a chance of taking the silverware.
KCMG’s Matthew Howson and Richard Bradley only have a slim outside chance of remaining in contention after Bahrain. To do so they must win the class and Zlobin must be unclassified and Canal/Pla/Rusinov cannot finish higher than fifth.
Although their points totals are mathematically within range of a title chance, neither Maurizio Mediani nor Nicolas Minassian can gain on Zlobin since they will be co-driving with him. Thus, both are eliminated from a shot at the title.
FIA ENDURANCE TROPHY FOR LMP2 TEAMS
Three teams remain in mathematical contention for this hard fought title. The race is tight for the top two positions between G-Drive Racing and SMP, with the other (KCMG) holding a far more remote chance.
SMP Racing (No. 27) have an 8 point advantage (128 – 120) over G-Drive Racing. G-Drive again have the advantage in the event of a tie.
If SMP win LMP2 at Bahrain and G-Drive are unclassified, then SMP captures the title.
If SMP finishes 2nd and takes the class pole and G-Drive are unclassified, SMP wins the championship.
Any other outcome at Bahrain and the LMP2 contest remains open for Interlagos.
While G-Drive may be able to take the lead at Bahrain, they cannot secure the title.
Other permutations will either increase or decrease the gap between the two without changing positions and will leave the contest undecided.
KCMG has only a very, very outside chance of remaining in contention after Bahrain. To do so they must win the class and SMP must be unclassified and G-Drive Racing may not finish higher than fifth.
As can be seen, the teams’ situation in LMP2 is nearly identical to that of the drivers.
Sam Smith
