This weekend will see the final battles of the 2015 season and with eight titles still yet to be decided there are going to be plenty of people in the paddock and around the world trying to calculate what each team needs to do to secure the world title in each of the classes.
The 2015 FIA World Endurance Manufacturers’ Championship has already been won by Porsche, the Stuttgart based manufacturer holding an unassailable 70 point advantage over rivals Audi with just 44 points still yet to be won.
The LMP1 Privateer Team and Drivers titles have also been won with the no12 Rebellion Racing R-One AER amassing 119 points, 33 ahead of the no4 Team Bykolles CLM-AER, with Nicolas Prost and Mathias Beche along 33 points in front of their nearest rivals with just 25 yet to be won.
So here is a look at the calculations for each of the remaining titles that will be decided when the chequered flag drops at 21h00 in Bahrain.
LMP1: Bernhard-Hartley-Webber v Fässler-Lotterer-Tréluyer
All eyes with be on the decider for the FIA World Endurance Drivers’ Championship, with Mark Webber, Brendon Hartley and Timo Bernhard in the no17 Porsche (155 points) holding a 12 point lead over the no7 Audi crew of 2012 World Champions Benoit Tréluyer, André Lotterer and Marcel Fässler (143 points).
The no17 crew are the favourites having won the last four races, taken one 2nd place , one 3rd place and scored 4 pole positions in 2015. By comparison the no7 crew have taken 2 x 1st, 1 x 2nd and 4 x 3rd place finishes but have not scored a pole position in 2015. In fact all the pole positions have been scored by either the no17 or no18 Porsche this year.
So assuming that the no7 crew take pole and the victory, the no17 crew will need to finish 3rd to be sure of taking the world title. If the no17 crew take the pole position they can afford to finish 4th if the no7 Audi takes the win because they will finish equal on points (168) but the no17 crew will win due to the fact they won 4 races to the no7 crew’s 3 race wins.
GTE Manufacturers: Ferrari v Porsche
The FIA World Endurance Cup for GT Manufacturers is the toughest battle to predict this weekend with just four points between championship leaders Ferrari and contenders Porsche.
To be sure of adding a fourth world title to their trophy cabinet Ferrari need one of their cars to win the race and the second car to finish at least 7th overall. This would give the Italian manufacturer 31 points and 290 points in total, meaning if Porsche finished 2nd and 3rd they would still only have a total of 288 points for the season.
If Porsche finish 1st and 4th and Ferrari 2nd and 3rd the two manufacturers would finish on 282 points each and the car that took pole position would take the title. Porsche and Ferrari both have three wins each so in the event of a tie the winning car would be the deciding factor.
We mustn’t forget that Aston Martin have been given a performance break in the latest change in the Balance of Performance, with a return to the restrictor diameter as it was at the start of the season. While the British Manufacturer can’t win the 2015 title, their three cars could take points away from the two protagonists. While the Aston Martins have struggled for pace in the last few races it must be remembered that the no99 Vantage V8 took victory in Belgium earlier this year, so a strong final performance in the final race of 2015 by Aston Martin should not be ruled out.
Whatever happens the race to the 2015 World Endurance Cup for GT Manufacturers will have everyone sitting with their calculators by their side on Saturday evening as the race unfolds in Bahrain.
GTE Drivers: Lietz V Rigon-Calado V Bruni-Vilander
Porsche’s Richard Lietz, currently on 135 points, holds a 20 point advantage over his nearest rivals able to overhaul his championship points tally. His teammate Michael Christensen is currently on 117 points but cannot challenge the Austrian, so Davide Rigon and James Calado in the no71 AF Corse Ferrari, currently on 115 points, are the nearest challengers. Reigning World Champions Gimmi Bruni and Toni Villander are on 112.5 points and are still mathematically able to overhaul Lietz.
Richard Lietz just needs to secure 6 points by finishing 7th in the 6 Hours of Bahrain to secure the 2015 title. If Calado and Rigon take their first win of the year and take pole position they would be on 141 points, equal with the Porsche driver if he finished 7th, but the Austrian has taken 3 wins so far this season and the Ferrari duo have yet to score a victory. So Lietz would take the 2015 crown on count back.
The only way for Bruni and Vilander to retain their title is to take the win and for the no91 Porsche to fail to finish the 6 Hours of Bahrain. With 25 points, the Italian-Finnish pairing would be ahead of their AF Corse teammates even if Rigon and Calado took second place and the extra point for pole position.
LMP2: G-Drive v KCMG
This battle has been raging all season and it seems only fitting that the race for the title should be between the no26 G-Drive Racing Ligier-Nissan of Roman Rusinov, Sam Bird and Julien Canal on 153 points and the no47 KCMG ORECA 05-Nissan of Matt Howson and Richard Bradley who are on 137 points and aided by 24 Hours of Le Mans overall champion Nick Tandy, who is not in the running for the driver’s crown, the British driver having raced for Porsche in Spa and Le Mans.
The G-Drive crew have taken 3 wins, 3 x 2nd places and 4 pole positions this year compared to the KCMG tally of 2 wins, 1 x 2nd and 2 x 3rd place finishes and 2 pole positions. Crucially the KCMG crew took the win at the 24 Hours of Le Mans garnering the Hong Kong based team double points.
The be sure of securing the 2015 title the no26 G-Drive Racing Ligier must finish 4th or better or, if they score their 5th pole of 2015, the Russian team can afford to finish in 5th place even if the KCMG ORECA takes the last victory of 2015 in Bahrain.
LMGTE Pro Teams’ Title: no91 Porsche v no51 Ferrari
The battle for the World Endurance Cups for GT Manufacturers and Drivers will have a direct effect on the destination of the FIA Endurance Trophy for LMGTE Pro Teams. After seven races the no91 Porsche Team Manthey 911 RSR holds a 14 point advantage over the no51 AF Corse Ferrari.
Assuming the Ferrari take pole and the win, the no91 Porsche needs to finish at least 3rd to secure the team title.
If the Ferrari takes maximum points and the no91 Porsche finishes 4th the two cars will both be on 156 points and also on 3 wins apiece. However the no51 would take the championship thanks to the two second places it scored at Le Mans and Shanghai, the Porsche only having one second place to its 2015 tally.
LMGTE: Ferrari v Ferrari – SMP Racing v AF Corse
With a season total of 155 points the no72 SMP Racing Ferrari 458 Italia of Alexsey Basov, Andrea Bertolini and Victor Shaytar hold a comfortable 19 point lead over the no83 AF Corse Ferrari 458 of Rui Aguas, Emmanuel Collard and François Perrodo. The no83 crew took their first win of the year in Shanghai but have scored a podium finish in every race in 2015. By comparison the no72 crew have taken three wins, including the LMGTE Class at the 24 Hours of Le Mans, and two pole positions.
Assuming the no83 crew take pole position and their second win of the year in Bahrain the no72 Ferrari must secure at least 7 points to be sure of taking the 2015 title for both Drivers and Teams and so they need to take the chequered flag in 6th place or better. If neither car takes pole, the SMP Racing Ferrari can afford to finish in 7th place in the LMGTE class. If this happens then the two cars will be on 161 points but the SMP Racing Ferrari crew would get the nod thanks to their three victories.
CLICK HERE for the current championship positions ahead of Round 8 of the 2015 FIA World Endurance Championship
Bapco 6 Hours of Bahrain
The Bapco 6 Hours of Bahrain will take place from 19-21 November. Starting at 15h00 on Saturday, the race in the Middle East will be the second 6-hour event on the WEC calendar to finish under the stars following Lone Star Le Mans, and the atmosphere within the impressive Bahrain International Circuit will be electric.
The weekend is an action-packed feast of racing, which includes hot single seater action from Formula One’s supporting GP2 and GP3 series, the Formula 2000 MRF Championship, which each have two races during the weekend, and two races by the Porsche GT3 Cup Challenge.
CLICK HERE for more information on the Bapco 6 Hours of Bahrain
